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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet the current race is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still